Draining canal on Imja Tsho

It’s like handling a water butt. The amount of rainfall is not manageable. If you want to prevent the butt from overflowing, you must drain the water. According to this model, the water level of Imja Tsho has now been lowered by a total of 3.40 meters over a period of two months. The glacial lake in the Everest region, which is almost 150 meters deep in some places, has steadily expanded over the last few years as a result of climate change, and has become a threat to the downstream villages, especially the nearby located Chukhung and Dingboche. A bursting of the natural dam at an altitude of about 5,000 meters could have devastating consequences. Soldiers from the Nepalese army were involved in the construction work for the canal, via which a total of four billion liters of water were drained. According to the government in Kathmandu, “an estimated 96,562 people, including tourists” – for this exact estimate Nepal earns an entry in the Guinness Book of Records – are expected to benefit from the project, which cost about three million US dollars and was funded by the United Nations. Daene McKinney, professor of Environmental and Water Resources Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, was on site and has replied to my questions.

Professor McKinney, you were involved in the Imja Lake lowering project in the Everest region. How dangerous did you assess the situation before starting to drain the water?

Imja Tsho, seen from space

We have been researching this question of the risk of Imja Lake for a number of years now. This work has involved field observations and measurements, community consultations and detailed computer modeling.  Our most recent publication on this, Rounce et al. (2016), notes that the risk of the lake is “moderate”. This categorization is based on both the current status of “low” hazard of the lake and future hazard status of “very high” due to the continued expansion of the lake that will result in the possibility of avalanches falling into the lake in the future (but not at the present time).

Do you think the situation is now under control?

The recent lowering of the lake by 3-3.5 m has certainly reduced hydrostatic pressure from the lake on the terminal moraine to some extent and this helps. However, the lake continues to expand and in the future, the situation will become a problem. In addition, the small lakes that make up the outlet channel of the lake continue to deteriorate and coalesce into the main body of the lake due to the ice-cored nature of the moraine.  This will act to increase pressure on the moraine and increase the risk to some extent.

Daene McKinney on the lakeside of Imja Tsho

The Nepalese government talked about a “milestone adaption work not only for Nepal but across globally”. It was a pilot project. How realistic is it to transfer the Imja model to other potentially dangerous glacier lakes?

The construction experience of Imja is of great value to the region, demonstrating the ability to perform such work at high altitude remote locations.  However, the design criteria for lowering the lake (lower the lake at least 3 m) were arbitrarily selected with no scientific or engineering basis.  This was similar to the situation at Tsho Rolpa (in the Rolwaling Valley), the only other lake that has been lowered n Nepal.  It is hoped that when considering the design of lake lowering systems for other lakes in Nepal, e.g.  Thulagi Lake (located near the eight-thousander Manaslu), that a more systematic and scientific method will be used to decide of the “safe” lake level.

It is to be expected, that climate change will cause more glacial lakes in the Himalayas or aggravate the situation at already existing lakes. Do you think the problem can be handled?

Definitely, more lakes are appearing and expanding every year in the Himalayas and this will continue for the foreseeable future. Some of these will turn out to pose risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. The level of risk posed by these lakes must be assessed (something that we are working on now) and acceptable risk levels must be determined to protect downstream people and assets. In cases where the risk is too high, new lake safety systems must be properly designed and implemented.

Melting glacier on Mount Stanley in Uganda (© www.25zero.com)

It is no more than a coincidence, but a suitable one. This year the “International Mountain Day”, which, since 2002, is observed every year on 11 December, coincides exactly with the final day of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris – that will end tomorrow hopefully with an agreement on climate protection which is more than just hot air. Mountains are considered as early warning systems for climate change (see the video below). Everyone who is often in the mountains would have to be blind not to perceive the changes. Glaciers are melting almost everywhere at record speed. For instance, more than two dozen mountains in Asia, Africa and South America, which are located near the equator and were once glaciated, will probably be completely ice-free within the next two to three decades. Permafrost in the mountains is in retreat too: soils that were permanently frozen before are thawing. Increased rockfall, more frequent landslides or mudslides are the result – not only in the Himalayas.

More than just environmental problems

“Saving our Himalayas means saving ourselves and our future generations”, said Ang Tshering Sherpa, president of the Nepal Mountaineering Association (NMA) when he visited the climate conference in Paris these days. “The Himalayas are water towers for three billion people in Asia. If these water towers for almost half the world’s population are empty, it will not only create environmental problems but a humanitarian and political crisis.”

DAV calls for new ideas in tourism

On occasion of the “International Mountain Day”, the German Alpine Club (DAV) pointed to the impacts of climate change for the Alps. Even with a successful conclusion of the summit in Paris these consequences could be “possibly mitigated but not stopped”. In addition to melting glaciers and less permafrost, more extreme weather events and lack of snow are expected, the DAV stated. “We need new ideas in tourism”, said DAV Vice President Rudolf Erlacher. “Unfortunately, in many places the imagination is only sufficient to construct snow-making equipment.” The resorts had to make their offerings more sustainable and diverse, said Erlacher: “The Alps offer unique winter experience also off-piste.”

Update 11.12.: Now the two dates don’t coincide at all. The UN conference in Paris has been extended until Saturday. That does not sound like a good omen.

Imja Tsho, glacial lake in Everest region

It’s five to twelve, maybe later. Time is running out to tackle man-made climate change. The impacts of global warming can be observed also in the Himalayas, gpt instance in Nepal. “Largely because of climate change and the recent impacts of the earthquake and aftershocks, Nepal has entered an era of accelerated catastrophic events that will impact the country’s population, their lives and livelihoods for several years to come”, US and local scientists said after having researched the greatest and most dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal after the devastating 25 April earthquake.

In these days, delegates from all over the world are debating a new climate change agreement in Paris. On this occasion, I called Dawa Steven Sherpa in Kathmandu. Along with his father Ang Tshering Sherpa, the president of the Nepal Mountaineering Association (NMA), the 31-year-old is managing the expedition operator “Asian Trekking”. Dawa Steven scaled Everest twice (in 2007 and 2008) and in addition the eight-thousanders Cho Oyu (2006) and Lhotse (2009). For years he has been engaging for environmental and climate protection. He is a climate change ambassador for WWF.

Khumbu Icefall

Dawa Steven, what changes caused by global warming do you notice in Nepal, particularly in the Everest region?

The whole mountainous region of Nepal is changing, including Everest region of course. As a climber you can see these changes. New routes have to be found, like the Icefall Doctors did in Khumbu Icefall this year. The dangers associated with climbing are changing too. We are seeing more rock fall because the snow and ice that used to hold the rocks in place on the slopes are gone. We also notice more avalanches and collapses of seracs. Of course it’s a natural process that these things happen on high mountains but it has never happened so often and in such big magnitude.

What do you consider to be the greatest dangers for Himalayan people in the future?

I have just talked about the dangers for climbers but there are many, many other problems. Glaciers are melting and turning into huge lakes with water that can burst out and strike the lower valleys where people are living. That is one direct concern, but there are others as well. For instance, weather patterns are changing. It’s no longer possible to predict when rain will come or stop, how dry, how cold it will be. Before, you could rely on historical patterns, now it is very difficult to say that. So for people who rely on agriculture it is becoming very difficult, not only in the mountains but in the valleys too. Furthermore, due to increasing temperatures, more insects are able to survive in higher altitudes. Pests are seen in places where they didn’t use to exist. Mosquitoes and parasites are also moving higher up where people never had seen them before. In effect they are destroying the crops and the health.

Dawa Steven Sherpa

Climate change is also impacting on tourism which is very important for Nepalese economy. For instance in 2013, Lukla airport [entry for climbers and trekking tourists to the Khumbu region] was closed for twelve days in October, what should have been the busiest month in tourism. But when more than a third of a month is blocked because of bad weather, it has a serious impact on the livelihood of the local people, on the health of the local economy but also on the health of the nation, because it is not good for Nepal’s reputation as a solid and reliable tourist destination.  

Nepal is currently facing other major problems: the consequences of the devastating earthquake, shortages due to the blockade of the border to India, a new government. Is there any scope left for the awareness of climate change at all?

We have to distinguish between urgent and important needs. Right now there are more urgent needs in Nepal like to get the blockade lifted. So of course people are not so concerned about the long-term climate change. But climate change or the blockade or the earthquake, they all have a direct impact on the livelihood of the people. After the earthquake, hundreds of thousands people can not return to their houses, because due to the blockade there is no help coming in and construction has even halted. These people don’t know what to do. They can’t go on the fields because their crops were destroyed. It’s not black and white that climate change is one problem and earthquake another one. It is all related because at the end of the day it all impacts the ability of the local people to look after themselves.

What do you expect from the climate summit in Paris?

I hope that not only powerful nations but all nations reach an agreement of reducing carbon dioxide to keep the global warming well below two degrees Celsius and to make it legally binding – so that if one country is found not to be following the rules, they are liable. Because it’s not just our but everybody’s future. I hope that this sense will be there when they negotiate and sign those papers that they say, it’s not just an economic incentive. At the end of the day, when the earth starts to collapse, I think economic reasons will be a joke. Nobody will look back and say, well, me made that decision. It should be based on future generations and not on economic concerns that we are facing today.

Do you think it’s one of the last chances because time is running out?

The chances are running out, things are getting worse and worse. Maybe some people in some parts of the world which are better developed and more industrialized have more chances in the future. But for the people of Nepal or other people who live in these developing countries in the world, chances have been running out very fast. They are already feeling the impacts.

Heidi Sand (© AthletenWerk/Bob Berger)

Heidi Sand knows how it is to accept a seemingly hopeless fight. “Since my cancer, I have a special relationship with probabilities and chances”, the 49-year-old German climber and sculptor write to me. “You have to believe in yourself and you should use any chance, no matter how small it is.” In 2010, Heidi was diagnosed with colon cancer at an advanced stage. She accepted the fight. Two years later, she climbed Mount Everest. In 2013, she summited Cho Oyu, her second eight-thousander. The following year, Sand and Billi Bierling were the first German women on top of Makalu. Now Heidi is committed to a climate protection project called “25zero”. During the upcoming climate summit in Paris, the Australian adventurer Tim Jarvis and his team want to point out the consequences of climate change for 25 still glaciated peaks at zero latitude, around the Equator. If nothing is done, says Jarvis, no ice or snow will remain on these mountains at the latest in 25 years – therefore “25zero”.

Six peaks on three continents

Mount Stanley

While a new climate change agreement will be debated in Paris starting next Monday, “25zero” teams will climb six mountains with melting glaciers in equatorial areas: Carstensz Pyramid (4,884 meters) in Indonesia, Mount Stanley (5,109 meters) in Uganda, Mount Kenya (5,199 meters), Mount Kilimanjaro (5,895 meters) in Tanzania, Chimborazo (6,268 meters) in Ecuador and Nevado del Tolima (5,215 meters) in Colombia. By sending live reports and pictures of these mountains, the adventurers want to show the decision-makers in Paris the already dramatic situation quite plainly. “I have decided to climb Mount Stanley, because the Rwenzori Mountains are particularly bad hit by climate change”, says Heidi. She will climb along with Tim Jarvis, the founder of “25zero”, and the Briton Ed Wardle. After his expedition with his Australian compatriot Peter Treseder in 1999, Jarvis was holding the world records for the fastest unsupported trip to the South Pole and for the longest unsupported Antarctica journey for a few years. Even after that, he made headlines with various expeditions in the Arctic and Antarctic. Wardle is a filmmaker and mountaineer who has scaled Everest already three times.

Glaciers in retreat

There is no more time to be lost, believes Heidi Sand. “When you’re for instance in Grindelwald in the Swiss Alps, you can see it quite clearly. 100 years ago, the great Grindelwald Glacier still ranged to the village. Today the glacier has melted so far that you must hike up six hours from the village”, says Heidi. “This year, the north faces in the Alps resembled south faces – hardly any ice or snow in the walls. So I had to postpone my next big project, the Eiger North Face, to next year.”

Optimist

Again and again, climate conferences have failed in the past. There was nothing more than hot air at the end. What makes Heidi confident that these Paris negotiations might end otherwise? “If I did not believe in the success and did not have an optimistic attitude that enabled me to achieve my goals, I would not take part in ‘25zero’”, Heidi replies. “We all have the belief and optimism to do our part to a better world.”