On Cho Oyu (8,188 m) in Tibet

China is closing Tibet for climbers for the rest of this year. “That is correct”, Dawa Steven Sherpa from the Nepalese expedition operator Asian Trekking confirms to me by email. “The Chinese authorities have decided not to issue permits for climbing in the autumn season in fear of further seismic activity telling that the mountains may be in a dangerous condition. They will issue climbing permits from 2016.” Furthermore, says Dawa Steven, the road that connects Nepal and Tibet, is still closed as it is under repair after the earthquake. “That means that equipment and logistics for the expeditions would not be possible to be transported via Nepal.”

Xi comes

Shishapangma (8,027 m) in Tibet

The Swiss operator Kari Kobler has abandoned the expeditions to the eight-thousanders Cho Oyu and Shishapangma that he had initially scheduled for next fall. Apart from the earthquake damage on the road to Tibet Kari tells me another reason for China not to issue permits: “The Chinese president will visit Tibet in the first two weeks of September.” 50 years ago, in September 1965, China had declared the previously occupied Tibet an “Autonomous Region”. The Chinese government will celebrate itself with some events in Tibet, probably with a large contingent of security forces to nip potential protests by Tibetans in the bud – especially when President Xi Jingping shows up in person. Foreign eyewitnesses have already been undesirable on similar occasions in the past. This is probably the main reason for giving no permits to expeditions next fall, as the example of International Mountain Guides (IMG) shows. Due to the earthquake damage in Nepal, the US operator had planned to travel directly via the Tibetan capital Lhasa to Cho Oyu, but did not get a permit too, with reference to the jubilee events in Tibet.

Alternative destination Manaslu

Manaslu (8,163 m) in Nepal

“Due to the current political fragility of Tibet we are unable to obtain guaranteed access for expeditions”, also the New Zealand operator Himalayan Experience informs. Himex has replaced the expedition to Cho Oyu by one to Manaslu in Nepal. The eighth highest mountain in the world is a popular alternative destination in case that China is closing the borders to Tibet. Already in fall 2012, many operators had offered expeditions to Manaslu instead of the cancelled one to the Tibetan eight-thousanders. The base camp at the foot of the “Mountain of the Spirit” might become crowded. Teams of many western operators (including the German operator Amical alpin) will set off to Manaslu in the upcoming post-monsoon period. Despite the earthquake with nearly 9,000 registered deaths and more than 22,000 injured, the Nepalese authorities have no doubt to issue permits for eight-thousander expeditions.

Update: Dan Mazur from the operator Summit Climb has informed me that they also have moved all their Cho Oyu and Shishapangma teams for this fall to Manaslu: “We were informed by our contact at the CTMA that because of the magnitude 8.1 devastating earthquake, the authoritative geologists in China surveyed the mountains. They decided that it is unsuitable to climb this year.”

Piles of rubble where Langtang Village was

About 100 seconds were enough to transform Nepal from a dreamland to a nightmare country. The earthquake on 25 April left a trail of devastation. In some mountain regions the quake triggered avalanches of debris, mud, ice or snow that razed entire villages to the ground. According to the Nepalese government, about 500,000 houses were completely destroyed by the main earthquake and numerous aftershocks. The authorities registered to date more than 8,600 deaths. Five German tourists were among the victims, four others are still missing, a spokesman of the Foreign Office in Berlin confirmed to me today. Many dead, buried deep under piles of rubble, will probably never be recovered. What a tragedy.

More than one million jobs in tourism

“The world must go on”, said Ganga Sagar Pant, CEO of the Trekking Agencies Association of Nepal (TAAN). “The tourism products are still there — mountains, flora and fauna, jungles, trails.”

On the Annapurna Circuit

In Nepal, one of the 20 poorest countries in the world, tourism is one of the main sources of income. More than one million jobs depend on it directly or indirectly. The German Foreign Office is currently advising against “non-essential traveling to Nepal as infrastructure and supplies are still overloaded as a result of the earthquake. This is especially true for trips to the Langtang Valley and to the area around Annapurna, which are persistently threatened by further landslides or avalanches.”

Government: Major destinations “safe and intact”

The government in Kathmandu has launched a campaign to avoid that tourism will collapse completely. In view of the next fall season, the Tourism Ministry “used its resources to assess the conditions of major tourism products of Nepal”. They were “safe and intact”, the Ministry informed. That included the most popular trekking routes like the Annapurna Circuit and the Everest trek. “We encourage all tourists to visit Nepal and through this to help Nepalese people who are in trouble in this devastation.”

Most routes are passable

Living in ruins

“We tend to be more discriminating, we assess each single region and route”, Manfred Haeupl, head of German trekking and expedition operator “Hauser Exkursionen” wrote to me. “You can not just say: Nepal is safe and intact – the damage is too great. However, some reports are exaggerated. The degree of damage at the UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Nepal reportedly varied from 25 to 70 percent. Which report should we trust?” Dominik Mueller, head of the German operator Amical alpin, refers to information from Nepal, according to which only two of the 35 most popular trekking routes were impassable after the quake. One of them was in the particularly hard-hit area of Langtang, Dominik told me. He was not yet quite sure which was the other route: “I’m still waiting for a reply from Nepal.” Two leading representatives of the German operator DAV Summit Club are staying in Nepal in order to get an idea of the earthquake damage. In early June, Summit Club would inform its customers, Christoph Schnurr, director of product management, wrote to me.

So far, few cancellations

The heads of Hauser and Amical assume that they will be able to realize most of the planned treks they offered for next fall – if not too many customers cancel their bookings. Just now there is no such trend. “We have only a few cancellations. Many are still waiting how the situation develops in the region they want to travel to”, Manfred Haeupl, the owner of Hauser, wrote. There were also new bookings with explicit reference of the customers that they wanted to prove their solidarity with Nepal, said Manfred, adding however, that most customers would not book before summer. “In recent days, our office has got more and more requests”, said Dominik Mueller, head of Amical. “There are divided opinions. Some say that they don’t want to spend their holidays in a country where people suffer. Others – and this is the greater part – want to travel to Nepal in any case, next fall and in the future too. I personally think that the best way to help Nepal is by realizing the planned trips in fall. Doing this, you give the people in Nepal a new task and new hope. And last but not least you directly pay the man on the street.”