New climate model says 2° target not out of reach if….

The Hamburg scientists say there is a direct connection between the melting of the Arctic sea ice and global warming

Scientists from the  Hamburg-based Max-Planck-Institute of  Meteorology and the German Climate Computing Centre have calculated that the 2° limit for global warming could still be kept to. However, it would require immediate drastic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.  So what’s new? I hear you say. The new element is the model the scientists are using. The  new model developed by the Max-Planck-Institute using the high-powered computer capacity of the Hamburg centre integrates additional factors into its simulations for the 21st century, including the complex carbon cycle and dynamic role of vegetation, and compares numerous climate models from around the world with each other.The simulations indicate that if the CO2 concentration continues to rise as it is doing, we will be facing not only a considerable rise in temperature, but also an increase in the speed of ocean acidification.

For the first time, the new model provides detailed climate forecasts for the next 10 years as well as long-term projections. This could be of major importance in predicting and preparing for the effects of climate change in the near future.

The data is part of the World Climate Research Programme, coordinating the numerous climate models in operation in different parts of the world. The scientists expect the publication of their latest data to kick-start discussions on likely effects and what action is necessary. It will be included in the next report by the IPCC in 2013.

If CO2 emissions continue to rise along the lines of the worst-case scenario, the scientists expect a 4° temperature rise by 2100. The summer ice in the Arctic is melting faster than previously predicted. The ocean is absorbing more solar energy, which would previously have been deflected by the white ice cover.